Exchange

Exchange is the judgement market: the place where you and your Society institutions put probabilities on resolvable theses, judge blind, reveal together, and settle against a source that was registered before anyone judged. Every judgement is kept with its reason and evidence, every settlement is written to a tamper-evident ledger, and every participant — human or institution — builds a calibration record on the same scale.

Three words carry the whole area:

Word	Meaning
Thesis	One sentence that someone who was not in the room could settle from a named source alone — e.g. "The Fed funds target range upper bound is at or below 4.25% after the 16 September decision"
Judgement	A participant's sealed answer: direction (Yes / No / Abstain), probability, chips staked, a one-line reason and the readings cited as evidence
Match	One thesis with its participants, a reveal time and a settlement rule, moving blind → revealed → settled (or void)

What the Exchange is not

Chips are a simulation variable inside your own world — not money, not a return, and not something you can buy, sell or withdraw. Judgements are records of judgement, not investment advice. Nothing on the Exchange is a signal for anyone outside the platform.

Around the panel

Four views along the top:

• Matches — your working list: every match you own or take part in, grouped by event.
• Marketplace — what members have published: theses, graphs and institutions. See Marketplace.
• Observatory — the readout across matches and the record of every participant. See Observatory.
• My judgements — the matches you have judged.

The header names the running season (Season 1 on first use). Every participant enters a season with the same initial chips (200) and winners reinvest in full.

The match list

Matches are grouped under the event they belong to — a rate decision, a payrolls or CPI release — with the event's date, importance stars, a link to the official source and a countdown. Theses with no event sit under Your theses. Filters: All events · Blind · Revealed · Settled · My institutions.

Each card shows the state, who opened the match (you, an institution, the calendar or an alert), the thesis, the number in play — 3 / 6 judged while blind, the clearing price after reveal, the outcome after settlement — the participant chips (people round, institutions square) and one action: Judge, View or Review.

Publishing a thesis

+ Publish a thesis opens a one-screen form. A match cannot open until the thesis is resolvable:

1. Thesis — one sentence, 8 to 280 characters. The test to apply: could someone who was not in the room settle this from the source alone? If not, sharpen it.
2. Settles on — a monitored reading from Signals › Monitor. The settlement source is registered here and never changes afterwards. If you have no monitored readings yet, register one there first.
3. Rule and Value — ≥, ≤, = or between, with the threshold.
4. Reveals at and Settles at — UTC times; the reveal must come before settlement.
5. Participants — you (always) plus any of your Society institutions.
6. Two options: open a trading phase after reveal (see Trading phase) and publish to the marketplace so other members can find and judge the thesis.

You can also type a plain question — will the Fed cut in September? — into Ask Qibo to draft it. Qibo shapes it into a resolvable thesis using only readings that exist on your monitor and fills the form; you review it and open the match yourself. If the question cannot be made resolvable, Qibo says what is missing instead of inventing a source.

A thesis can also start in Signals › Journal: an entry's Publish to Exchange button hands it to this form with the text pre-filled.

Blind judgement

While a match is blind, nobody — not you, not your institutions — sees anyone else's judgement, and there is no price. The match page shows the thesis, How this resolves (source, rule, deadline and the official page), the sealed participant list, and Your judgement:

• Direction — Yes, No or Abstain.
• Probability — your P(YES).
• Chips — how many of your balance you stake. The stake is your maximum loss.
• One-line reason and Evidence — pick monitored readings from the catalog. Each is stored with the value and as-of date at the moment you cited it.

Before you submit, three plain statements: what you stake and at what probability; roughly what you receive if YES resolves and if NO does; and when your judgement reveals and with how many institutions. Submit sealed judgement locks it — one judgement per participant per match.

Ask Qibo to draft fills the form from the match's own readouts. It stays your judgement: review it, edit it, submit it yourself.

How institutions judge

Your Society institutions judge in the nightly cycle. Each is handed the settlement reading and the same-scenario readings as evidence, and its decision seat answers in the same shape as you do — direction, probability, chips, reason, evidence. An institution that cannot support a view abstains rather than guessing. The model that actually served is recorded and shown as a chip after reveal, and the process — the evidence it was given and its verbatim reply — is stored with the judgement.

Reveal

At the reveal time every judgement is published at once. The clearing price at reveal is the chips-weighted mean of the P(YES) judgements (equal weights when no chips were staked). The price is a view; the record is the judgements themselves, each shown as a card with participant, human/institution tag, model chip, direction, probability, chips, reason and evidence chips — and, for an institution, Show the process.

Disagreement · relative to your judgement sorts the other judgements into four quadrants:

Quadrant	Meaning
Confirm	Same direction, same reasoning — an echo
Consilience	Same direction, different reasoning — independent convergence
Framing error	Opposite direction, same reasoning — a framing mismatch worth reading twice
Dissent	Opposite direction, different reasoning — ordinary disagreement

Without a trading phase the match closes at reveal and waits for settlement. The page refreshes itself every 30 seconds while a match is still open.

Evidence on the table

Every reading that any judgement cited is collected in one table on the match page: name, value as cited, as-of date, and who cited it. Click a row — or any evidence chip — to open the evidence drawer:

• As cited in the judgement — value, as-of, cited by;
• Reading now — the current value and state on the monitor board, when it was collected, and a stale flag if it has aged; if the reading is no longer on the board, the drawer says so;
• Source — series, reference and leg id;
• Open in Monitor — jump to the reading in Signals › Monitor.

Evidence chips read as name · value · date; hovering shows the source.

Trading phase (optional)

If the match was opened with a trading phase, then after reveal participants can trade against the house until settlement: buy YES or NO shares from an automated market maker with bounded loss (LMSR), seeded at the clearing price. Each buy moves the price and is recorded; shares pay one chip each if that side resolves. If the match voids, trade stakes are returned.

Settlement

At the settlement time the match is settled by machine, from the source registered when it opened:

• World (the default) — the platform reads the monitored reading and applies the rule: YES or NO. The reading it used is stored as the source record with its own content identifier, so anyone can see exactly what was read.
• Release-based theses — for monthly series the reading must carry an as-of date on or after the reference period. If the source still shows the previous figure, settlement is postponed for up to 72 hours; if it is still stale, the match voids.
• Void — if the source is unavailable, the rule cannot be evaluated or the release never arrives, the match voids and every stake is returned. The platform never guesses an outcome.
• Adjudicated — a match whose resolution names a human adjudicator never settles automatically. When it closes, the adjudicator sees Your ruling with the rubric and records YES, NO or Void with a one-line reason for the record. Every judgement — direction, probability, chips, reason and evidence — is on the table for the adjudicator; only the clearing price stays hidden until the ruling settles. A ruling is recorded first and settles after a thirty-minute window in which the adjudicator can still change it.

Chips

Chips settle by a strictly proper rule. For a stake of c chips at probability p, the change is c × (1 − 4(p − o)²) / 3, where o is 1 if the thesis resolved YES and 0 if NO. In words: a 50% judgement neither gains nor loses; a fully confident correct judgement gains a third of the stake; a fully confident wrong one loses the whole stake. Stating your true probability is what maximises expected chips — overstating confidence does not pay. Abstentions score zero. Chips are whole units at the ledger.

Review

A settled match shows the outcome banner (observed value, source record and its content identifier), the Review table — participant, judgement, chips, chips Δ, Brier — and the match's event timeline: every state change, judgement, trade and settlement as a numbered ledger entry with its content identifier. From there:

• Send to Scrutiny — hand the thesis to the Society scrutiny station for a full debate;
• Open in Journal — the thesis and every judgement are mirrored into Signals › Journal, and settlement writes an outcome row (hit / miss / flat) with Brier and chips;
• Export match pack — a JSON file with the match, all judgements and the event timeline.

Two ledgers, never merged

Ledger	What it records	What it is not
Chips	Stakes, payouts and refunds, rolling from match to match within a season	Not money; not a measure of skill
Calibration	Brier, hit rate, peer score and calibration bins per participant — how good the stated probabilities were	Not tradeable; never converted into chips

Neither ledger produces sparks.

Sparks

Sparks recognise contribution and are never produced by settlement. On the Exchange they come from two things only: another member joining and judging a thesis you published (5, once per member) and a member liking it (1, once per member). You cannot like your own thesis.

Events: the calendar and alerts

The Exchange keeps a small event registry drawn only from verified official sources: the Federal Reserve's published 2026 meeting dates, the Bank of England's next announced decision date, and the payrolls and CPI release dates from FRED. For every user with at least one institution, the nightly cycle opens one deterministic match per event a few days before the release — a 25 basis point cut from the current upper bound, payrolls at or above +40k, core CPI at or above its current level — with the reveal shortly before the release and settlement shortly after. Opening is idempotent: one match per user per event. An event with no machine-readable settlement reading (the Bank of England today) organises matches but does not open one.

Alerts open matches too. When a monitored reading crosses into its amber or red band, the cycle opens a seven-day match — is it still beyond the line a week from now? — with a two-day blind phase, once per reading per day.

Published matches

A match is private to your world unless you publish it — from the thesis form, from the match page (Publish to the marketplace / Unpublish, at any state) or through the Marketplace publish flow. Other members then find it in the Marketplace and can join it: they judge blind exactly as you do, with their own chips, trade in a trading phase, and like it. Publishing after settlement is a public review.

On Home and in Qibo

The Home dossier can carry a This week on the Exchange card: this week's events, matches that need your judgement or your ruling, the last settlement with your chips change, and Your week in one line — settled tally, your hit rate, Brier and chips net, best and worst call, matches opened and awaiting reveal. It refreshes when the Exchange broadcasts a change, when you return to the tab, and every five minutes as a fallback. The What's new card adds the latest Exchange activity: reveals, settlements, members joining, publications, interviews and setting changes.

Qibo knows the page: it drafts theses and judgements, explains a match's disagreement or a participant's calibration, and carries your weekly digest while you are on Home or the Exchange.

Read next

• Observatory — the readout, participant records, interviews and the knobs.
• Marketplace — publishing theses, graphs and institutions for other members.
• Trust & Provenance — the ledger and content identifiers behind every match.