What (One-liner)

Core PCE inflation as a desk-ready nowcast: the YoY pace versus the 2% target, the 3-month-annualized near-term momentum, the Cleveland Fed 1-year expectation, and an accelerating / stable / decelerating trend label.

How to use

Drag inflation_nowcast_v1 into Canvas and run — it self-fetches core PCE (PCEPILFE) and the Cleveland Fed 1-year expected inflation (EXPINF1YR) from FRED. No input parameters. Wire it upstream of an FOMC institution_composite so the inflation seats read a real price-stability gauge, or read it standalone.

Core formula

yoy           = (core_PCE[-1] / core_PCE[-13] − 1) × 100         # 12-month
m3_annualized = ((core_PCE[-1] / core_PCE[-4]) ** 4 − 1) × 100    # 3-month compounded
expected_1yr  = EXPINF1YR[-1]                                     # Cleveland Fed, if present
trend         = accelerating (m3 > yoy+0.2) / decelerating (m3 < yoy−0.2) / stable

Assumptions & applicability

Assumptions: core PCE (PCEPILFE) monthly; 3m momentum compounded (^4); trend band ±0.2 pp; expectation = Cleveland Fed EXPINF1YR passthrough.

Applicable: US core-inflation level + momentum.

Not applicable: headline / CPI / non-US inflation, structural forecasting.

Input / Output contract

No inputs (self-fetching). Output: {core_pce_yoy, pce_3m_annualized, expected_1yr, trend, as_of, n_obs}. On FRED unavailability (<13 monthly points) it returns {status: error, _error_kind: fetch_failed} — it never fabricates a number; expected_1yr is null if the expectations series is absent.

Known limitations

1. Core PCE only — excludes food + energy.
2. 3-month annualization is noisy on a single revision.
3. Trend band ±0.2 is a fixed heuristic.
4. expected_1yr is a passthrough; null when absent.
5. Needs ≥13 monthly observations; otherwise an honest fetch_failed error.