What (One-liner)
Classifies the macro environment into one of four quadrants — goldilocks / reflation / stagflation / deflationary_recession_risk — from where GDP growth and inflation sit relative to a 2.5% neutral anchor. A simplified implementation of Bridgewater's classic All-Weather frame.
How to use
Drag b0_all_weather_v1 onto the Canvas, fill gdp_growth_yoy (e.g. 3.5) and cpi_yoy (e.g. 1.5). Output is the quadrant plus normalized coordinates.
Core formulas
g_up = (gdp_growth_yoy >= 2.5)
i_up = (cpi_yoy >= 2.5)
g_up AND !i_up → goldilocks (high growth + low inflation)
g_up AND i_up → reflation (high growth + high inflation)
!g_up AND i_up → stagflation (low growth + high inflation)
!g_up AND !i_up → deflationary_recession_risk (both low)Normalized coordinates:
growth_norm = clamp((gdp - 2.5) / 2.5, -1, 1)
inflation_norm = clamp((cpi - 2.5) / 2.5, -1, 1)Assumptions & applicability
Assumptions: US potential growth + target inflation ≈ 2.5%; GDP/CPI YoY are valid regime proxies; the 4 quadrants are an empirical discretization.
Fits: US macro regime classification; medium/long-horizon allocation switch triggers.
Does not fit: small / emerging economies (localize thresholds); high inflation (>10% CPI); daily / monthly nowcasts.
Input / Output contract
{gdp_growth_yoy: float, cpi_yoy: float} → {gdp_growth_yoy, cpi_yoy, neutral_anchors, quadrant, coords, _assumption}. Details in the frontmatter.
Known limitations
- The 2.5% threshold is US-stylized
- Discrete quadrants → boundary flip-flop (e.g. 2.51 vs 2.49)
- No liquidity / asset-bubble dimensions
- Bridgewater's original parameters are private → this is an open-source approximation
References
Dalio / Bridgewater All-Weather framework (1996-). Full citations in the frontmatter.
Golden Test
tests/golden/fixtures/tier1/b0_all_weather/, 1e-12 tolerance, 4 tests (full coverage of the 4 quadrants + boundary + coord clamp). Passing as of 2026-04-20.
Changelog
- 1.0.0 (2026-04-20) — Initial Active release